Research
Working Papers
Job Market Paper
Presentations:University of Northern British Columbia, Calvin University, 2024 Graduate Student Conference of ESG-UQAM (Winner), 2022 Bank of Canada Graduate Student Paper Award Workshop, 2022 African Econometric Society, 56th Annual Canadian Economics Association Meetings, and 17th CIREQ Ph.D. Students’ Conference
Abstract
I document notable differences in convergence speed across sectors and construct an endogenous growth model to elucidate the reasons behind these observed discrepancies. The model categorizes countries into three groups based on their levels of financial institutions and aggregate productivity. Initially, the first group, characterized by low aggregate productivity and weak financial institutions, experiences sectoral productivity divergence but eventually catches up with the second group. The second group demonstrates moderate levels of aggregate productivity and financial institutions, showcasing conditional convergence. On the other hand, the third group, characterized by high aggregate productivity and strong financial institutions, experiences unconditional convergence towards higher sectoral productivity. The model also suggests that convergence in sectors with faster growth rates at the technological frontier occurs at a later stage. Empirical evidence from the World Development Indicators dataset spanning 29 years and covering over 150 countries supports these and other predictions.
Presentations : UQAM internal seminars, 2023 Canadian Economic Association, 18th CIREQ Ph.D. Students’ Conference, and Quebec Social Sciences PhD Students Presentations.
Abstract
Rodrik (2016) pointed out that late industrializing countries are experiencing a lower peak at lower income levels in the manufacturing employment share hump-shaped path. The present study develops a theoretical model to analyze the dynamics of industrialization and deindustrialization in developing countries and their integration with earlier industrialized economies. The findings suggest that financial development plays a crucial role in both accelerating industrialization and facilitating deindustrialization. Moreover, the model reveals that when developing countries integrate with economies in deindustrialization, the technological frontier in the manufacturing sector becomes relatively further ahead compared to the services sector. This discrepancy in technological proximity between sectors influences the differential productivity growth rates in manufacturing and services, driving an early shift towards the services sector. The model is calibrated to South African data from 1960 to 2010 and provides empirical support for these findings.
Abstract
Traditional theories of structural transformation fail to account for the disparities between employment and value added shares, which poses a significant puzzle. To address this issue, I propose a Schumpeterian framework, incorporating technological innovation and trade at the sector level. This framework makes distinct predictions regarding employment and value added shares. In a closed economy, the model establishes an equilibrium where the share of value added equals the share of employment. However, when a country opens up to trade and achieves a monopoly through innovation in a specific sector, it results in higher profits and greater value added relative to employment in that sector. Consequently, the share of value added increases more rapidly than the share of labor. Conversely, in sectors where the country lacks global monopolistic control, the share of value added diminishes due to lower profits for intermediate good producers, resulting in a value added share that is lower than the employment share.
Work in Progress
Abstract
We have documented a significant dynamic in input shares within all three sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, and services) for South Korea during the period from 1965 to 2014. This finding implies notable transformations in intersectoral dependencies throughout the analyzed timeframe. Such changes can be attributed to various factors, including technological advancements, shifts in production patterns, fluctuations in input prices, and evolving economic structures. By employing a three-sector, open-economy model of structural change, our objective is to elucidate how dissimilarities in input-output linkages contribute to the observed structural shifts in South Korea manufacturing employment shares.
Technology Adoption, Structural Change, and Biodiversity, joint with Juha Siikamäki and Matías Piaggio
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between economic growth and biodiversity threat, aiming to provide insights for public policy decisions regarding structural economic system change for nature conservation. Using panel fixed effects estimation methods, this research aims to analyze data on the changes in aggregate extinction risk across species groups, technology adoption, and economic structural change. The primary focus of the statistical estimation results will be to project future changes in the risk of species extinction, specifically in the years 2050 and 2100, considering economic and population growth, as well as the potential impact of increasing protected areas coverage to mitigate these threats. The findings of this study will contribute to a deeper understanding of the intricate relationship between economic development and biodiversity conservation, ultimately facilitating enhanced comprehension of the synergies and trade-offs involved in achieving the objectives outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Organic Farming versus Conventional Farming: Adoption, Transition, and Profitability, joint with Moustapha Thiam
Abstract
The departure of Quebec farmers from the organic agriculture sector in 2023 accounted for over 46% of new entrants. This article presents a dynamic theoretical model aimed at analyzing the profitability and transition dynamics between the organic and conventional agriculture sectors. Empirical evidence suggests that the adoption of organic agriculture is positively associated with the relative price between organic and conventional products, while it shows a negative correlation with the relative yields of various crops. The model underscores the necessity of implementing subsidies for transitioning farmers, in addition to taxes on pesticide use, to facilitate the uptake of organic agriculture. Furthermore, optimal environmental taxation on conventional goods is identified, along with the optimal allocation of conventional agriculture land to mitigate potential long-term negative externalities resulting from conventional production through environmental regeneration. Additionally, the study examines farmer adoption and transition dynamics within an uncertain environment, considering the potential emergence of new pests.
